Thursday, March 29, 2018

The Pit in Your Stomach

Bitcoin is down 15% in the last 24 hours to $6786. It is should be nerve shattering to a bitcoin bull, but this isn't.

This is  not going to be a post about anything rational, it is a post about a feeling.

I have not led a life out of the ordinary. I am middle-aged, married, two adult children. There have been no events in my life that Steven Spielberg would want to shoot as a feature film. Nothing that I have done would anyone describe as heroic. No great tragedy has befallen me that required a herculean effort at recovery.

I have made some tough and very good secular calls as an investor. Long tech in the early 1990s. Exiting tech in 1999. Buying gold in 2000.

There has also been the pain of being very long gold for the past six years.

Again, nothing too out of the ordinary. What I want to talk about here are the biggest decisions of my life and how unsettling they may have been at the time, but how awesome they were as I look back at them. I am talking about getting married and having kids.

If you were lucky, you grew up inside a great family and with parents who set a good example, but nothing can really prepare you for having to play out the events yourself. If anyone really knew beforehand what it took to make a marriage work, or what you would sacrifice for your kids, then I am sure that there would be fewer marriages and fewer kids.

The leap into that unknown was, for me, completely worth it, however. Somehow, we as humans instinctively know this. We know there are risks, but do it anyway, and it is awesome....even the scary parts.

This is how I feel now about bitcoin. Sure, my wife will hate reading this, comparing her to a bunch of code written by some pseudonymous programmer may not make her feel too great, but I hope she sees it as I see her and bitcoin...as miracles.

Bitcoin is one of the great achievements of man in my opinion. A true miracle. Something that can solve many of the problems of economics and justice that have bothered me for years. Yes, like my wife, bitcoin is a miracle, perhaps even a gift from God.

Yes, I feel bitcoin is that important. No, I am not going to assure you that bitcoin will work out. It may not. There are plenty of powerful forces arrayed against it, and they may yet win out.

I am saying that I don't care, I just want to be a part of it. Like meeting my wife for the first time, I wasn't quite sure where it was going, I just knew that I wanted to be partnered with her. Many marriages don't work out, but people still get married because what may happen is too wonderful miss out on.

That is bitcoin to me. The best ledger, the best unit of account, the best accounting system for value the world has ever seen. This is the one investment that I am willing to fight for because I think it is the one thing that I have seen in all my years that should make the world a better place. It is a revolution in money, morality and opportunity. Maybe the best investments should generate that same spark that befalls you when you meet your spouse. Perhaps we humans should instinctively know these things about investing. Perhaps we get too caught up in the fear, uncertainty and doubt and let ourselves be frightened away from the great opportunities we see. Bitcoin, if it works, would be too wonderful to miss out on.

I just feel I need to be partnered up with this one for the duration.

Disclosure: This  does not represent investment or marriage advice. I can't possibly know what is the right thing for you to do. 




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